Host nation Brazil will beat Argentina 3-1 in the final of the 2014 World Cup, while England will not make it beyond the group stages, according to economists at Goldman Sachs.

A detailed analysis from the City economists predicted that England will finish third in Group D, marking the end of their tournament, with Italy and Uruguay progressing to the knockout round.

Using a model based on each team’s track record and characteristics, Brazil emerges as the clear favourite, with a 48.5% probability of winning in Rio, followed by Argentina, which has a 14.1% chance. Spain, winners of the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, are expected to be knocked out in the semifinals alongside Germany.

England has just a 1.4% chance of winning the tournament, according to Goldman.

“Since its sole World Cup victory in 1966, English fans have suffered almost 50 years of continual disappointment. What is unusual about the lead-up to this World Cup is that the views of English and non-English are very closely aligned regarding the prospects for the England team: pretty much everybody agrees that England will do badly,” the authors of the report said.

They concluded that England’s chief problem is that the team adds up to less than the sum of its parts, despite boasting some of the Premiership’s top players such as Wayne Rooney, Steven Gerrard, and Joe Hart.

Evaluating the relative importance of football versus economics, Goldman’s Kevin Daly says: “In the (unlikely) event that England wins the 2014 World Cup, we doubt that many in 2062 will remember whether the economy performed well or badly this year but everyone will remember the World Cup. Business cycles come and go, football is forever.”

And England failure at the 2014 World Cup might have a silver lining according to Daly: “The UK economy tends to do better when England’s football team is doing worse. If England does do well in the World Cup, we may have to adjust our economic forecasts downwards.”

This is the fifth edition in a series which began in 1998 with the World Cup in France under Goldman’s former chairman of asset management, Jim O’Neill. O’Neill coined the term Brics, referring to the fast growing emerging economies Brazil, Russia, India, and China.

In the run up to the last World Cup in 2010 Goldman failed to predict Spain would win the tournament, instead plumping for Brazil. However it was not far off, with Spain second favourite to win.

Goldman also had a successful attempt at forecasting Team GB’s success in the London 2012 Olympics, predicting 30 gold medals and 65 medals overall. Team GB actually won 29 golds and 65 medals.